There’s a common error in thinking that many incorrigible womanizers—even those with a lot of experience—fall into. It goes something like this:
- «I haven’t had sex with a new girl in a while. This must mean I’m getting rusty / am starting to suck / am in a rut / etc.»
- On the surface, this seems like a reasonable enough conclusion. It’s been a while since you’ve frolicked with a sexy new playmate (however long you consider «a while» to be). Therefore, you reason, you must doing something wrong OR not doing enough of something right. So what’s wrong with this logic…?
- Let’s say you’re selling t-shirts online. As you peruse your website statistics, you see that on every day last week you had 100 new visitors to your site. And on each of those days you sold three t-shirts. A 3% conversion rate; not bad.
- As you look at this week’s stats, however, you notice that despite the same number of new daily visitors, you’ve only sold one t-shirt on monday and four t-shirts on wednesday. The rest of the days you sold zero. This amounts to a sub-1% conversion rate for the week.
- «Why have my sales dropped?» you wonder. And you immediately start racking your brains for explanation of what could have gone wrong.
- Likewise, when you’re putting in the work to meet new girls on a consistent basis yet your sexual conversion rate seems to suddenly drop, you start inventing narratives to explain the seeming decrease.
- There are several possible explanations why you could be experiencing a dry spell.
You’re making too many conclusions from too little data.
In court cases, a prosecutor will often try to establish the character of a defendant to show that his menacing behavior wasn’t just a one-time fuck-up but yet another episode in a consistent series of lawless acts.
On the other hand, somebody who does something stupid once may get off with just a slap on the wrist because their record indicates they’re generally law-abiding citizens.
Likewise, unless you have hundreds upon hundreds of interactions with women, every conclusion should be thought of as: «this is what seems to be the case so far, based on what I seem to know and my understanding is always amenable.»
(If you cut out the trend between 1880 and 1920 you’d think that global temperatures aren’t increasing…)
Why do old people completely change their political beliefs as they accumulate life experience? Because more data allows you to see the trend along a lengthier timeline and not just a short snippet. When you’re young, certain things seem to make sense. But experience slowly brings bullshit to light and puts us face to face with the world as it really is (as opposed to how we’d like it to be).
Last week I met up with 3 girls. My rate of first-date sex is something like 75%. But I went home alone thrice last week. Then tonight a girl text messages me and after 45 minutes of chit-chat at a shisha bar, we were back at mi casa having some of the best sex of my life.
On some weekends I play with a new friend every night. Other weekends I’m watching Mad Men reruns. This is an inherently random pursuit. Which leads to point #2…
It’s fundamentally impossible to predict trends in any complex domain. The best you can do is develop an antifragile strategy that reduces your risk to disproportionately harmful events (called Black Swans).
In the domain of tail chasing, things seem consistent, then erratic. In the domain of online marketing, sales pour in, stop cold, then even out again. And so on in random bursts.
There’s nothing that can be done about this chaos per se. So what can be done?
Become a high volume merchant.
Instead of worrying about how many t-shirts you sold this week, focus on increasing the visitors to your site from 100 a day to 1000 a day. If your conversion rate, on average, remains at 3%, then you will increase profits by 10x.
With chasing girls it’s no different. As fellow incorrigible womanizer Paul Janka iterates and reiterates in his awesome online video series, volume is your friend. In fact, it’s a topic completely ignored by most pickup and seduction authors and coaches.
Instead of telling the truth, which is that this IS a numbers game on the front end, they want to convince you that you don’t have to put in the hustle required. So long as you buy their eBook, that is.
But if you’re hustling, getting many of phone numbers a day, working all the online dating sites and going out on the weekends, you WILL get laid way more. And the beauty is, you’ll get to improve your end game through copious practice.
In the past few months I’ve hooked up with girls that I met on the street, on the beach, in a cafe, on Craigslist and on three different dating sites. So I’ll say it again, volume is your friend.
Peaks and valleys are a natural part of the game. So trying to change that fact is futile. Instead, increase volume on the front end so the distance between each peak and valley is shorter and don’t beat yourself up too much.